Cotton is the largest source of export receipts of several West African countries. Statistics however show a decreasing tendency in cotton yields and an increasing tendency in pesticide use. Under this circumstances there appear to be potential payoffs from the use of biotechnology products in the farming systems of the region. In this study we estimate different scenarios for the potential deployment of insect resistant cotton in selected countries in West Africa (WA). We use an economic surplus model augmented with a more rigorous sensitivity analysis of model parameters. Hypothetical scenarios of Bt cotton adoption in WA are simulated and single point values of model parameters are substituted with probability distributions. The scenarios include: no adoption in WA; adoption of existing varieties; adoption of WA varieties backcrossed with private sector lines; and fluctuating adoption patterns. According to the simulations, the total net benefits of adopting Bt seem to be small even after including the innovator surplus who accrues a larger share of the benefits. In contrast the WA countries included in the evaluation are worse off if they decide no to adopt Bt cotton. These results are in part explained by the conservative assumptions taken. The adoption pattern and the length of the adoption period affect the share of benefits earned by producers as compared to innovators. This study provides tools and information that can be used to build greater confidence in the process of setting agricultural research investment priorities.

A major public policy issue in West Africa is whether or not, and how, to introduce Bt-cotton in the region. The implications of non-adoption may be more significant than, for example, the issues often raised concerning cotton subsidies in advanced countries. This paper provides estimates of the potential benefits from Bt-cotton if introduced in West Africa. Our analysis shows significant farm-level benefits. Aggregate benefits depend on adoption rate and yield advantage of Bt-cotton. These range from a low of US$7 million to a high of US$67 million in Mali; US$4 million to US$41 million in Burkina Faso; US$5 million to US$52 million in Benin; US$4 million to US$38 million in Cote d'Ivoire; and, US$1 million to US$7 million in Senegal. The reduction in insecticide use is an added environmental benefit. Non-adoption of Bt-cotton in the region will ultimately result in non-competitiveness in the world market. Permission granted by 'Inderscience' to reproduce full article for the CD-ROM and abstract for the webpage.